The COVID-19 outbreak, which started in China in December 2019, has spread to 203 countries. Till date, over 1.5 million people had been affected by COVID -19 and about 80,000 people had died worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the virus outbreak a pandemic in the second week of March 2020, four months after the novel virus first made headlines. We are in unprecedented times. The Covid -19 pandemic is spreading across the world and India is no exception.

Accordingly, industrial operations (excluding essential services) in the country have come to a standstill, which coupled with fears of the disease outbreak, are likely to have prolonged repercussions on several industries. The shutdown of nearly 130 crore people and a large number of companies is leading to disturbances and dislocations on an unimaginable scale. It has slammed the brakes on economic activity and caused huge human sufferings.

The outbreak has now presented Indian economy with new roadblocks, creating destructive impact on the world of work. The organizations have gone on a backfoot with such a crisis at the country. both markets and the economy have reacted sharply to the pandemic and its implications for businesses. Some are:

Since February 1, 2020 –

• India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for fiscal 2021 was pegged at 6% by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on February 6 and by CRISIL at 5.2%. CRISIL has since revised it lower to 3.5%, while the RBI in its monetary policy meeting in March decided not to provide an outlook on GDP growth.
• In its South Asia Economic Update: Impact of Covid -19, the World Bank estimated the Indian economy to slow down to 5 percent in 2020 and projected a sharp growth deceleration in fiscal 2021 to 2.8 per cent in a baseline scenario.
• S&P BSE Sensex is down over 30%, and most global indices have crashed and seen sharp volatility.
• Crude oil is down 64%, while the rupee is trading 6% lower compared with the dollar.

Outline of the methodology is given below:

1. For each of the five economic indicators, ascertain the actual value as of year ended 2019–2020.
2. Consider three scenarios of level of pessimism—moderate, average and severe pessimistic situations of recovery in 2020–2021.
3. Assign estimated values for change in the year 2020–2021 for all the three situations.
4. Assigning equal probability of 0.33 each to all the three situations, calculate a single expected value for the year 2020–2021 as a weighted product of the probability and estimated values of changes in all the three situations.
5. Adjust the current value of the economic indicator (April 2020) for the expected value of the estimated change. The adjusted value will, thus, be the forecast for the year 2021–2021.

A COVID-19 outbreak affected not only India but the entire world, and was felt across industries. The economic impact of India's corona virus pandemic has been tremendously destructive. That will have an effect t on the Indian industry to a large extent. Its epidemic is declared by World Health Organization as a national emergency. India’s real GDP decelerated to its lowest in over six years in 3Q 2019-20, and the outbreak of the COVID-19 posed fresh challenges. Steps taken to contain its spread, such as nationwide restrictions for 21 days and a complete lockdown of states, have brought economic activity to a standstill and could impact both consumption and investment.